Kamatmentes hitel gyermekvállalásra — ki fizeti a kamatot?

Indoklás

The Babaváró programme provides a state-subsidised, interest-free general-purpose loan of up to 11 millió Ft to married couples where the wife is under 35; the debt is partly or fully forgiven on the birth of children. The budget line funds the interest subsidy and the forgiven principal. This is a demographic-allocation instrument: the state is using credit subsidy to influence household formation timing. Two mechanisms are at work. First, a subsidised interest rate is an administered price — it severs the loan's cost from the actual cost of capital, and where credit is mispriced, capital misallocates. Second, the evidence that pronatal cash and credit transfers shift the timing of births more than the completed family size suggests the programme buys a pull-forward rather than a trend break. The reform path: close the programme to new applicants, honour every loan already contracted in good faith — borrowers signed on specific terms and those terms are a property-rights commitment — and let the line run off as existing loans mature and their forgiveness conditions resolve. A three-year horizon reflects the run-off of the active forgiveness pipeline. The protected party is the cohort of current borrowers; the honouring mechanism is contract run-off; the bridge is funded from general revenue over the run-off years.